Imran Okoth receives the nomination certificate from party leader Raila Odinga at Orange House on September 10, 2019.
Imran Okoth receives the nomination certificate from party leader Raila Odinga at Orange House on September 10, 2019.

ODM candidate Imran Okoth would have easily trounced his competitors to win the Kibra by-elections if elections were conducted at the beginning of this month, an internal party poll reveals.

The opinion poll commissioned by the party gave Imran who is the brother to late area MP Ken Okoth a landslide victory scoring 27 percent of the entire votes with his closest competitors Eliud Owalo and football star Macdonald Mariga  managing a meager four percent of all votes cast.

The poll was conducted between August 29 to August 30, 2019 before the ODM primaries; it also sought opinion on all ODM aspirants who contested the ODM nominations.

From the poll results ANC candidate Eliud Owalo and Jubilee candidate Macdonald Mariga would have gone head to head with each gathering four percent of the total votes.

Former ODM Kibra aspirant Christone Awino popularly known as Dj Kris Darling, the poll puts in the same level with both Mariga and Owalo at four percent.

Other former ODM aspirants Benson Musungu and John Otieno Milar would both get two percent of the total votes if the mini-elections were to be conducted on August 30, 2019.

The poll gave one percent each to the other aspirants including; Peter Orero, Lumumba Owade, Kennedy Odede, Shem Owino, Said Ibrahim and Stephen Okello.

However from the poll, the most worrying is the huge number of undecided voters who could change the matrix for any candidate.

The results put the population of undecided voters as at end of August at a record 47 percent, a population that hold sway on who will win the November 7 mini polls.

The poll had a 95 percent degree of confidence.

Imran – according to the poll – was popular in all the five wards leading the other candidates with wider margin.

For instance, In Laini Saba and Sarang’ombe wards the ODM candidate got 27 and 22 percent percent respectively with closest challenger getting three percent in the two wards, the same wards ranked highest on number of undecided voters which stood at 56 percent in each of the election units.

The ODM candidate also ranked highest amongst the female voters and youths who are the majority in the Constituency.

A total 30 percent of women voters said they will vote for Imran while 25 percent of the youths also picked Imran as their preferred candidate in case of an election.

The ODM nominee also emerged most popular among the numerous ethnic groupings in the informal settlement.

According to the results, the Orange flag bearer beat other candidates garnering 64 percent of the Nubian votes, 30 percent of Somali votes, 27 percent of Kikuyu votes, 25 percent of the Luo votes21 percent of the Luhya votes and 20 percent of the Kisii votes.

Interestingly, Imran would have beaten both Owalo and Mariga for the Luhya vote even though the community had 47 percent of its voters undecided.

From the results Owalo would have garnered nine percent of the Luhya vote beating Mariga with a paltry two percent.

The poll sampled 500 respondents from the five Wards of the constituency; Laini Saba, Lindi, Makina, Woodley/Kenyatta golf course and Sarang’ombe.

The poll commissioned by the Orange party days to the internal primaries was conducted through a computer Assisted Telephone Interviews and respondents identified from the IEBC 2017 voters register.

From the poll results, ODM remains the most popular individual political party in the slum Constituency with 78 percent of those interviewed identifying with it.

All the other political outfits including the ruling Jubilee party, ANC, Ford Kenya all have one percent popularity index according to the poll results.