Deputy President William Ruto, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga at the launch of the BBI report.
Deputy President William Ruto, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga at the launch of the BBI report.
Image: DPPS
 
By Reporter
 
An overwhelming majority of Kenyans doubt that President Uhuru Kenyatta will back his deputy William Ruto for the presidency in 2022, a new poll shows.

But the Usemi Survey by Kantar (formerly Research International) conducted last week shows that Ruto is the most preferred successor to Uhuru.

 

The survey is likely to ignite political fires across the divide as the country debates whether to amend the Constitution or not to implement the BBI proposals.

 

Kantar says that it collaborated with renowned political polling researcher Tom Wolf, formerly of Ipsos, who designed the questionnaire and analysed the data.

The poll was conducted among 1,203 adults between November 6 and 16. 

According to the poll, only 34 per cent of Kenyan adults believe that Ruto has the assured support of Uhuru despite their 2013 and 2017 partnership.

Over 40 per cent are not sure while 14 per cent believe Uhuru would support ODM leader Raila Odinga, with the assumption that the structure of government remains unchanged.

Interestingly, the poll also shows that over 42 per cent of adult Kenyans support Jubilee, whereas less than a fifth (16 per cent) support ODM.

This could be taken to mean that most Jubilee supporters are not convinced that Uhuru will endorse Ruto for the presidency.

Another 8 per cent of Uhuru’s support is shared among other possible candidates including Baringo Senator Gideon Moi (4 per cent), Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i (1 per cent) and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi (1 per cent). 

Poll shows Ruto is most preferred person to take after Uhuru with a majority unsure if the president will support his bid.
Poll shows Ruto is most preferred person to take after Uhuru with a majority unsure if the president will support his bid.
Image: Lucy Swan
 
Since the 2018 handshake with Raila,  speculation has been rife over Uhuru’s position on the next election.

In 2018, while addressing Nyeri residents, Uhuru said that his choice of successor would surprise everyone.

“Whatever the President’s eventual announcement (or permanent silence), the fact that many Kenyans will indeed be “surprised” is evident in these results, in that even the most frequently mentioned expectation – i.e., support for the candidacy of the current Deputy President William Ruto – is mentioned by only about one-third of all respondents,” the pollsters say.

Despite this result on Uhuru’s silence, Ruto attracts the most support to be the next president at 40 per cent with Raila coming second at 16 per cent.

“The current DP receives the support of more than one-third for the presidency in 2022, but this proportion is still considerably lower than the actual votes he would have to receive for a first-round win (50% plus 1 vote),” the pollsters say.